What Oklahoma, Texas early exit from Big 12 means for SEC schedule format in 2024
Oklahoma and Texas exit the Big 12 a year earlier than expected for the SEC.
That means 2024 will be a milestone in college football’s most successful conference. The SEC will welcome programs ranked fifth and sixth, respectively, in all-time wins. TV ratings and earnings are expected to be huge – and the Sooners and Longhorns were willing to pay the Big 12 a $100 million exit fee to get their new conference started. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey released a statement on Thursday:
What does this move mean for Oklahoma, Texas and the SEC? It’s time to start planning now for the 2024 schedule. Let’s look at the potential models, stalwarts, and what that could look like in 2024:
SEC schedule for 2024
This will be the first priority at the SEC’s spring meetings. Sporting Illustrated reported that there are two formats the conference is considering, and neither has splits. The first is an eight-game format with one permanent opponent and seven rotating opponents. The other is a nine-game format with three permanent opponents and six rotating opponents.
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Nine-game conference debate has been on the table since Texas and Oklahoma were added. It’s just a question of whether that will be put into action for 2024 and beyond.
SEC protected opponents for eight, nine-game schedules
This is what the permanent opponents could look like for both scenarios:
| TEAM | EIGHT GAMES (1-7) | NINE GAME (3-6) |
| Alabama | maroon | Maroon, Ole Miss, Tennessee |
| Arkansas | Missouri | Missouri, Texas, Auburn |
| maroon | Alabama | Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas |
| Florida | Georgia | Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri |
| Georgia | Florida | Auburn, Fla., South Carolina |
| Kentucky | South Carolina | South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt |
| LSU | Texas A&M | Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M |
| State of Mississippi | Ole Fraulein | Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas A&M |
| Missouri | Arkansas | Arkansas, Florida, Vanderbilt |
| Oklahoma | Texas | LSU, Texas, State of Mississippi |
| Ole Fraulein | State of Mississippi | Alabama, LSU, State of Mississippi |
| South Carolina | Kentucky | Florida, Georgia, Kentucky |
| Tennessee | Vanderbilt | Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt |
| Texas | Oklahoma | Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas |
| Texas A&M | LSU | LSU, Mississippi, Texas |
| Vanderbilt | Tennessee | Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri |
The eight-game model is clean and would receive fewer complaints. Tennessee might not be keen on this scenario of losing Florida and Alabama every year, but these are the most logical pairings in this setup.
However, can you really run a 16-team league and an eight-game conference schedule? That will be the pushback knowing the Big Ten is already rolling with a nine-game schedule, bringing UCLA and USC into the group. The Big 12 and Pac-12 have also played nine league games per season.
The nine-game model will cause some problems. SI asked, “If the conference moves to a nine-game conference schedule, will ESPN bring additional revenue to the SEC?”
Assuming the answer is yes, then the conference should hastily take that extra game and even out these three constant opponents, even if it involves some classic rivalries.
Take Auburn for example. You could load up the Tigers with Florida, Georgia and Alabama — all classic rivals. But that schedule would be brutal every year. Some rivalries would fall away, and this setup assumes Texas and Texas A&M will play every year. Will you agree?
Which model makes more sense? The nine-game model is better, especially if you’re running a conference with no divisions. That extra play can, at least in theory, provide more separation and less room for complicated tiebreakers. The Pac-12 went into a divisionless format last year, creating the best conference championship between USC and Utah.
What the SEC move means for Oklahoma, Texas
The Longhorns and Sooners are not treated like royalty in their new surroundings. For example, there were four SEC games that were in the top 10 most watched games in 2022.
The Red River Rivalry didn’t make the top 10 this year. The September 10 game between Alabama and Texas drew 10.6 million viewers, making it the most-watched non-conference game of the season.
Would the SEC go along with it and make Alabama and Texas an annual game and modern-day rivalry? It’s worth debating, but the more likely scenario is that the Longhorns play Oklahoma and Texas A&M every year. The Aggies and Longhorns have not played since 2011. Would you rather see this game every two years or every year? Both fanbases will likely be satisfied with the second option.
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Oklahoma, meanwhile, leaves some options for protected opponents after Texas. LSU makes sense, but the Sooners would have to consider a game with Florida every year, especially for recruiting purposes. Oklahoma has been a more successful program than Texas since the beginning of the BCS era, but that has yielded a national championship in each. The Longhorns are still more of a glamor program.
This transition will be difficult. The Sooners were 6-7 under coach Brent Venables in their freshman year. The Longhorns were 8-5 under second-year coach Steve Sarkisian. Both schools introduced top five recruiting grades in 2023, and that needs to continue once they get into the SEC if they want to be competitive.
Three simple SEC predictions for 2024
Texas’ first game is…
If Arch Manning is the starting quarterback for the Longhorns (and he should be), then there’s no escaping a “Manning Fest” against Tennessee, where Peyton Manning was a star, or Ole Miss, where Archie and Eli stars were .
SEC with at least four playoff teams in 2024
The first year of the 12-team playoffs will be something of an experiment when it comes to picking teams at large. When the SEC moves to a nine-game conference format, SEC teams will default to a 16-team league based on this strength of the schedule. If you think the term “SEC bias” is gaining momentum now, then just wait for 2024.
The nine game format will be awesome
The list of 10 games and all conferences in 2020 during the COVID-19 affected season was huge for the conference. Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida all finished in the top 10 of the final CFP rankings. The Crimson Tide won the national championship. As long as the SEC continues to play for national championships — and has placed at least one team in the CFP championship in each of the last eight seasons — neither the schedule format nor the number of teams in the CFP will matter. The SEC — with Texas and Oklahoma on board — can expect more of the same.
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