Who will super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez fight next?
After a routine decision win over British left-hander John Ryder over Cinco De Mayo weekend, it was taken as gospel that undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez would target Mexico’s Independence Day in mid-September for a megafight in Las Vegas.
Not so fast.
Rumors are now rife that boxing’s biggest star is set to return in October, and the venue could very well be Saudi Arabia. That’s a bone of contention for many, but the money flaunted by the Middle Eastern kings is now more than a match for the big guns from gambling-rich Las Vegas, and boxing’s biggest star could be vying for a piece of the action.
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The question is: who will Canelo fight?
The Mexican icon is never short of options, and that’s certainly the case this time around. However, some of these potential encounters are more likely to happen than others, while some fights have been all talk and no action for years. Issues preventing them from getting the green light include weight, ego, ad loyalty, and business weaknesses.
Sporting News now takes a look at some of the opponents (in alphabetical order) that could potentially appear on Canelo’s dance card, then breaks down the likelihood of them appearing:
David Benavidez
- Age: 26
- Record: 27-0 (23 KOs)
- Title: WBC interim super middleweight
The matchup most 168lb fight fans want is Canelo vs undefeated two-time world title holder David Benavidez. 26-year-old Benavidez is a bold and fierce pressure fighter. He has 23 knockouts in 27 straight wins and doesn’t know how to lose. The Las Vegas-based contender has been chanting Canelo’s name from rooftops to no avail and recent negotiations have failed to get off the ground.
In terms of danger level, this seems to be the red code for Canelo. A career super middleweight, Benavidez is a cracker. Unfortunately, Canelo doesn’t rate his achievements, so there’s a better chance of finding a one-sided stick than seeing one soon.
Probability: 1/5
Edgar Berlanga
- Age: 26
- Record: 20-0 (16 KOs)
- Title: N / A
Another fight that has been mentioned more than once is Canelo vs Edgar Berlanga, Matchroom’s new super middleweight. The hard-hitting New Yorker is up 20-0 (16 KOs) but fans have already poured cold water on a possible fight, claiming that Berlanga is too green to take on a seasoned champion like Canelo. Such fans are 100 percent right.
Berlanga rocked the hardcore world by scoring 16 straight knockouts in the first round. Then it went downhill. As soon as boxing’s hitter went up a few levels, opponents started hitting him back and he made it over the distance in three consecutive bouts (Marcelo Esteban Coceras, Steve Rolls and Roamer Alexis Angulo).
It’s way too early.
Probability: 2/5
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Dmitry Bivol 2
- Age: 32
- Record: 21-0 (11 KOs)
- Title: WBA light heavyweight
A rematch with defending WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol, who comfortably outplayed Canelo last May, appears doomed due to a disagreement over weight classes. Bivol wants Canelo’s 168lb belt collection while Canelo insists on bringing her back to 175lbs. The Russian star has a refreshing approach to putting heritage over money and has so far refused to play along.
Also, the WBC’s decision not to allow Bivol to contest their title due to his Russian citizenship created an additional obstacle in the fight for the undisputed championship.
Probability: 1/5
Jermall Charlo
- Age: 33
- Record: 32-0 (22 KOs)
- Title: WBC middleweight
This fight was all the rage a few years back, but Canelo’s rapid success through the weights has pushed it into the background. According to ESPN’s Mike Coppinger, Canelo is now considering a fight against the reigning – and extremely inactive – WBC middleweight champion, who is believed to weigh 168 pounds.
Charlo has been out of the ring since June 2021 when he made a routine decision over Juan Macias Montiel. The undefeated Texan struggled with mental health issues, but the plan was always for him to get back in the ring.
Will he take on a fighter of Canelo’s class after a two-year layoff? Does the potential gain justify the risk? Charlo may never get that chance again if he turns it down.
Probability: 3/5
Badou Jack
- Age: 39
- Record: 28-3-3 (17 KOs)
- Title: WBC cruiserweight
Canelo’s entry into the cruiserweight division has been mooted for more than a year, with the Mexican star announcing the idea at a WBC convention while participating in a duel with then-world champion Ilunga Makabu.
Unfortunately for Makabu, he missed that chance to win money when Canelo lost to Bivol with 175. And things got worse for the Congolese fighter when he lost his WBC championship to Badou Jack in February.
According to ESPN, there is currently serious discussion of a Canelo Jack showdown. If Canelo won this fight, he would be the equal of Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns and Floyd Mayweather as a five division world champion.
The scheduled date for what is believed to be a catchweight duel (big surprise) is sometime in October, with Saudi Arabia being the front runner.
Probability: 4/5
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Jaime Munguia
Unlike Berlanga, Munguia, 26, has competed at world level and once held the WBO title at 154 pounds. The Tijuana-born puncher is undefeated, with 33 of his 42 straight wins ending within range. Additionally, Canelo and Munguia’s respective styles mixed with plenty of Mexican machismo guarantee an outgoing shootout.
But even if both men are presented on DAZN, a duel between Canelo and Munguia could be doomed from the start. Munguia is promoted by Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions and that’s a problem. Amid toxic and contentious hostilities, Canelo parted ways with Golden Boy in the fall of 2020 and subsequently began working with Matchroom Boxing. The once extremely close relationship between Canelo and De La Hoya has never recovered and that could be enough to prevent a Canelo vs Munguia duel.
Probability: 1/5