Arkansas vs. Illinois odds, prediction, betting trends for 2023 March Madness first round matchup
Eighth-seeded Arkansas (-2.5) meets 9th-seeded Illinois Thursday afternoon (4:30 p.m. ET, TBS) in what could be one of the more competitive first-round matchups of the 2023 NCAA tournament. The Razorbacks entered the season ranked 10th in the AP preseason poll, but two crucial early-season injuries at guard Nick Smith Jr. (knee) and wing Trevon Brazile (ruptured cruciate ligament) quickly threw a wrench into Hogs hopes of one dominant 22 -23 campaign.
Illinois also started the season with a lot of excitement, finishing second to Indiana in the Big Ten’s preseason media poll. The Fighting Illini started the season strong, securing neutral wins outside of conference against 2nd-seeded UCLA and Texas, but they couldn’t quite maintain their consistent play. Illinois is limping into the NCAA tournament, losing three of its last four games, its only win coming in double overtime against Michigan.
Which school will be able to pull off a win to keep their season alive? Here’s everything you need to know about betting on Arkansas vs. Illinois in the 2023 NCAA tournament, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for this first round game.
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Odds between Arkansas and Illinois
According to Sports Interaction, Arkansas is currently considered a 2.5-point favorite with the total standing at 143.5 points. The Razorbacks were easily fielded after the opening as a 1.5-point favorite, although guard Anthony Black is currently wearing a walking boot after landing on a Texas A&M player during Friday’s quarterfinal loss in the SEC tournament. Black will likely dress and play his usual minutes, but having less than 100 percent certainly hinders his playmaking abilities.
- spread: Arkansas -2.5 (-110); Illinois +2.5 (-110)
- About Below: OVER 143.5 (-110); BELOW 143.5 (-110)
- money line: Arkansas-144; Illinois +120
Three betting trends to keep an eye on
– Arkansas has been a respected team in the betting market all season, finishing as favorites in 23 of their 32 games. Though by a tiny margin, the Hogs were a profitable ATS team as favorites, posting a 12-10-1 ATS mark (54.5 percent coverage ratio).
– Illinois has been an even more profitable ATS team this season with a 17-14-1 ATS record (54.8 percent coverage rate). However, the Fighting Illini have lost just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, with their lone cover leading to a 76-71 away loss to Purdue (+7).
— As an underdog, Illinois covered five out of six games, and Arkansas covered five out of seven games on neutral side. Which trend continues on Thursday?
MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT BETS:
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Arkansas key players
247 Sports’ No. 1 player in the Class of 2022 Nick Smith is the Razorbacks’ most-used offensive weapon, shooting 34.1 percent of possessions when he’s on the ground. Smith struggled to get going in Arkansas’ recent loss to Texas A&M, but he has had above-average offensive ratings in four of his last six games. While Smith was on the touchline and suffering a knee injury, fellow five-star rookie Anthony Black had the ball in his hands quite a bit and should be able to break into the lane against the Illinois defense. Black has 52.8 percent of his two-point shots while shooting at high volume (112 out of 212), which is a respectable number for a novice player who matters a lot. Alongside Smith and Black, Ricky Council IV loves to live in midfield, while experienced guard Devo Davis can also stabilize offense.
MORE: Print your 2023 March Madness bracket here
Key figures from Illinois
The Fighting Illinois are led by first-team All-Big Ten guard Terrence Shannon Jr., who leads Illinois with 17.1 points per game. Shannon Jr. has hit double digits in nine straight games as he needs to score with an efficient clip to allow the Fighting Illini to advance to the Round of 32. After Shannon, ex-Baylor Bear and 2021 National Champion, Matthew Mayer is the team’s second most used option, shooting for 25.7 percent of possessions when he’s on the ground. Frontfielders Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins are exceedingly efficient from two-point territory, with Dainja hitting 63.7 percent of his two-point looks and Hawkins sinking 59 percent of his two-point looks.
HISTORY OF ORIGINS THROUGH SEEDS:
15 against 2 | 14 against 3 | 13 against 4 | 12 against 5
Best Individual Matchup: Terrence Shannon Jr. vs. Devo Davis
Davis’ main task on Thursday will be to slow down Illinois’ top scorer Shannon. Davis is routinely seeded on the opposing team’s top scorers, and although he didn’t face Shannon the last time those two met 21 in the Sweet 16 when Shannon was at Texas Tech, Davis thought fellow guard Mac McClung was close nine points from two of six shots in Arkansas’ 68-66 win. Shannon Jr. could fire his shot from within three-point territory, but Davis should hold his own on the inside to limit Shannon Jr.’s punching power.
Arkansas vs. Illinois stats to get you started
Illinois and Arkansas are two of the better teams in college basketball when it comes to rim protection. Along with allowing opponents to connect on fewer than 47 percent of their two-point attempts (D-1 average is 50.1 percent), Illinois ranks seventh in defensive block rate (14 percent), while Arkansas 18th in defensive block rate (13.4 percent). . Getting higher scoring percentage looks in transition before both defenses shut down could be the difference in this case.
EXPERT PACKAGES:
DeCourcy (Alabama) | Bender (Kansas) | Fagan (Marquette) | Pohnl (Kansas)
Arkansas vs. Illinois Prediction
Both offenses are likely to have a hard time scoring consistently on half the pitch and setting up this game for the team that can be more effective in transition. Arkansas has one of the best transition defenses in college basketball, according to HoopMath, keeping opponents at a 48.2 effective field goal percentage in transition (26th in D-1). Illinois’ transition defense isn’t nearly as strong, ranking below average in terms of effective field goal percentage (54.1 percent). The Razorbacks’ ability to pull off higher looks percentage sees Eric Musselman’s crew advance to the Round of 32 with one win and one cover in a lower-scoring contest.
Forecast: Arkansas 73, Illinois 70. Arkansas (-2.5) covers the spread on the fly UNDER the sum (143.5).
See what BetQL is forecasting for Arkansas vs. Illinois, along with sharp picks, value bets and more for each March Madness game!