Arsenal vs Sporting CP: Prediction and Preview
Following a 2-2 draw in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League round of 16 in Lisbon last week, Arsenal and Sporting CP meet again on Thursday night for a place in the quarter-finals. We look ahead to the game with Opta’s key insights and predictions.
Arsenal vs Sporting CP: The quick hits
- Arsenal are the big favorites to beat Sporting CP in this game in the Emirates (69.8%) with the Opta supercomputer.
- Sporting CP have not won any of their last nine away games in Europe against English clubs.
- Gabriel Martinelli’s superb form for Arsenal makes him their man of the moment.
Arsenal vs Sporting CP match preview
Arsenal host Sporting CP and aim to reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League. After a 2-2 first-leg draw at Lisbon’s José Alvalade Stadium last week, the tie is perfectly set.
The north London club are unbeaten in five meetings with Sporting CP, winning two and drawing three, although the last two meetings have ended in draws. They have kept clean sheets in both of their home games against Sporting CP so far, beating them 3-0 in the Fairs Cup in November 1969 and playing them 0-0 in that competition in November 2018.
Sporting need to improve their recent away record against English clubs after failing to win their last nine trips there in major European competition (W0 D4 L5). Their last away win against English clubs came in the 2004/05 UEFA Cup, when they defeated Middlesbrough 3-2 in the Round of 16. However, the Gunners have not won any of their last three knockout games at Emirates Stadium in the UEFA Europa League. Since beating Benfica there in February 2021 (3-2), they have drawn two and lost one at home.
last meeting
Sporting CP 2-2 Arsenal – 9 March 2023 (UEFA Europa League)
A 2-2 draw in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League against Arsenal saw Sporting CP remain unbeaten in European competition for the fourth consecutive time against English opponents.
After falling behind through William Saliba’s first goal in European competition, they put Gonçalo Inácio’s first-half strike and Paulinho’s 55th-minute goal ahead. Paulinho’s goal became only the second player in history to score against both Arsenal and north London rivals Spurs in a single season (excluding qualifiers) in European competition.
A Hidemasa Morita own goal leveled the score in that second leg but it meant Arsenal have won just one of their last six knockout games in Europe (D3 U2).
Current form
Since losing 3-1 to Manchester City in the Premier League on February 15, Arsenal have been unbeaten in six games in all competitions, winning five and drawing one. They’ve scored nine different players (not including own goals) for them in that six-game run, with Gabriel Martinelli’s five goals more than double any other player.
Mikel Arteta’s side were group winners in the Europa League, winning five of their six games this season (L1). No team won more in the group stage. Although they only scored eight goals in their six games, their solid defense helped them move through the group as they conceded just three goals in the group stage.
Rúben Amorim’s side are unbeaten in seven matches (5 wins, 2 wins) going into this game and defeated Boavista 3-0 in the Primeira Liga on Sunday Nuno Santos’ extraordinary Rabona shotan own goal by Salvador Agra and the goal by Paulinho in added time.
They are currently unbeaten in six consecutive away games in all competitions and have won each of their last five since a 2-2 draw at Lisbon rivals Benfica on January 15. Attacking midfielder Pedro Gonçalves has scored five goals in this run.
Sporting CP have entered the Europa League after finishing third in Group D of the Champions League group stage, ahead of Marseille but behind Tottenham and Eintracht Frankfurt. The Portuguese lost just one of their three away games in the group (4-1 in Marseille), a 1-1 draw at Spurs and a 3-0 away win in Frankfurt.
key figures
Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli
After scoring in the weekend’s Premier League win against Fulham, Gabriel Martinelli has already twice as many goals in all competitions in 2022/23 (12) as in his previous best season, 2021/22 (six).
His 12 goals make him Arsenal’s top scorer in all competitions this season, one more than Bukayo Saka (11) and two more than Martin Ødegaard (10). His 53 chances from open play is only behind Ødegaard’s 56 in all 2022-23 competitions at the club.
Martinelli has scored five goals in his last six games for Arsenal, his best scoring return in six games of his Arsenal career since October 2019 (seven goals in six games).
Sporty CP: Marcus Edwards
Former Spurs winger Marcus Edwards was born less than 10 miles from Emirates Stadium so he will feel right at home for Thursday night’s clash between Sporting and Arsenal.
Edwards has already scored 10 goals at club level in 2022/23, which is just one of his all-time record set last season (11) between his spells at Sporting CP and former club Vitória Guimarães.
Since the start of last season, no player in the Portuguese Primeira Liga has dribbled more times than the Englishman (105), while only nine players have scored more goals than him in all competitions (24-16 goals, eight assists).
Arsenal vs Sporting CP Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favorites for this game with a 69.8% chance of winning against Sporting CP at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday.
The Premier League leaders have so far won 13 of their 17 home games in all competitions in 2022/23, with just two defeats to Man City in the Premier League and Brighton in the League Cup.
Sporting has little chance of winning in this duel (12.4%). A draw could be enough to see them through if they manage to take the game to penalties, and according to the supercomputer calculations there is a 17.8% chance of a draw after 90 minutes of this game.
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