ATP Tour best bets for Dubai, Mexico and Chile

Recommended bets: ATP Tour Tennis

1pt ew Jiri Lehecka at the Dubai Duty Free Championships on 28.1. (Betfred 1/3 1.2)

1pt ew Albert Ramos-Vinolas at the Movistar Chile Open at 20/1 (Betfred 1/2 1,2)

Dubai Duty Free Championships

• Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)

It’s been a few weeks for the favourites.

At the time of writing, the last five ATP events have been won by the Jollies, with Carlos Alcaraz most likely extending that to six in Rio.

With Novak Djokovic in this week’s field in Dubai, there’s every chance another favorite will line up this week and, as always, it would take a brave man to take on him.

Despite a hamstring problem in the early rounds, Djokovic rather galloped to the Australian Open title last month, where it really looked like nobody had the ability – or the belief – to beat him.

Of course, Djokovic has an exceptional record in Melbourne – that was his 10th success there – but he’s been pretty solid here too over the years, lifting the title five times, most recently in 2020.

It’s hardly surprising that the Serb is no bigger than 5/6, but while it’s easy to make strong arguments for him, I’m naturally inclined to be wary of backing anyone to win a tennis tournament with odds .

The obvious concern is the month Djokovic has been off the field; In fact, he admitted last week that he wasn’t quite back to 100% intensity.

However, a decent early draw should give him a chance to put himself into play – it’s Tomas Machac first, followed by Tallon Griekspoor or Constant Lestienne.

However, there are others in his half who have the ability to push world number one.

Potential quarter-final opponent Hubert Hurkacz comes fresh from a title triumph in Marseille and reached the semi-finals here 12 months ago.

Then maybe Daniil Medvedev is waiting in the last four. He’s returning to what is close to his best form, but after back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Doha, is he fresh enough to achieve the very rare feat of three ATP titles in as many weeks?

For those looking to take on an expensive underdog with Djokovic, you could do worse than Borna Coric, who has made it to the semifinals in Dubai three times.

Coric, who blows very hot and cold, is 50/1 this week, although anyone supporting last year’s Cincinnati Masters champion should do so, knowing he retired from Doha last week and still does suffers from a hip injury.

Given that a Djokovic win is by far the most likely outcome, my plan of attack here is to find the finalist from the bottom half of the draw, despite Layers only paying a third of the odds for a place in the given final Djokovic’s Odds- on status.

The man those shifts are looking for to reach the final is Felix Auger-Aliassime but the Canadian has struggled to repeat his form from last autumn since the restart and while he reached the semi-finals in nearby Doha last week , he was beaten in straight sets by Medvedev .

While the DecoTurf II courses here tend to play a bit faster than Doha, you still have the problem of conditions slowing down in the evenings so planning can play an important role.

Andrey Rublev, the defending champion, is another whose form means I’m happy to overlook him – he’s lost 2-1 since the Australian Open and doesn’t have an easy draw here as Filip Krajinovic and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina look like tough opponents in the opening of two rounds.

Then Karen Khachanov could come.

He’s a player I’d like to see this week, his first tournament action since his semi-final run at the Australian Open.

If he replicates that kind of form, he has a chance here, but how likely is that?

Following his appearance at the US Open SF last September, Khachanov failed to make the final four of any tournament as far as Melbourne, while his six visits here resulted in just a quarter-final appearance.

I want more than 14/1 to get with him this week.

Instead, I’ll try again with Jiri Leheckawho was the latest in a long line of agonizing semi-final losers for this column in Doha last week – and even by our standards his failure was quite remarkable.

The Czech gambled away five match points in the “Money Match” against Andy Murray, three of which he scored in the decisive set 5:4, 40:0.

Of course, such a defeat has the potential to leave lasting scars, but if you’re willing to put that aside, there’s a lot to like about Lehecka.

He’s clearly playing well, having beaten Rublev last week, one that followed his quarter-final appearance at the Australian Open where seeded Coric, Cam Norrie and Auger-Aliassime were all sent off.

He’s now 10-3 on all levels in 2023 and shouldn’t fear an opening round encounter with Alex Zverev, who lost again in the first round last week as he continues to bounce back from his six-month injury layoff.

With Lehecka playing well and already adjusting to Middle East conditions I think he is the value pick down the range with Betfred going 28/1 over his odds. Others are at 25s.

Abierto Mexicano Telcel

• Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)

Will appear here…

Open Movistar Chile

• Santiago, Chile (Outdoor Sand)

It’s 6/1 for the field at a wide-open Chile Open this week, a tournament that brings down the curtain on the month-long “Golden Swing” of clay-court events in South America.

After the dominance of Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie over the past two weeks – the pair reached finals in both Rio and Buenos Aires – there will be a different winner this time.

Maybe it will be Sebastian Baez, champion of the inaugural tournament of this swing in Cordoba.

Given that he reached the final here 12 months ago and was also a quarterfinalist at the 500 level event in Rio last week, I’m sure he’ll have his supporters, even at 6/1.

That said, it looks a bit short for my liking, with plenty in that draw being more than capable on the red dirt.

I can say the same about Nicolas Jarry.

I was hoping to see the Chilean here at double figures after playing some impressive tennis in Rio last week.

He qualified there before beating both Lorenzo Musetti and Baez en route to the round of 16, where he managed to take a set from Alcaraz and put him very close.

Nonetheless, he finds himself in a tricky section of the draw here, featuring defending champion Pedro Martinez and in-form Bernabe Zapata Miralles (a semi-finalist in Rio and Buenos Aires).

Jarry would likely face either of them in the quarter-finals, but before that he’ll have to get past Juan Pablo Varillas and Diego Schwartzman – Varillas was Buenos Aires’ other beaten semi-finalist and, as a Peruvian, would no doubt be happy to topple the home hope here.

It is worth talking about the conditions at this point.

They will differ significantly from Rio and Buenos Aries, which were at sea level.

This venue on the outskirts of Santiago is in the foothills of the Andes and is around 1,000m high.

This height factor has the potential to aid Jarry’s serve, which when engaged is a dangerous weapon.

Still, I feel like he falls short at 7/1 and I’m happy to turn to an old favorite instead ALBERT RAMOS VINOLAS.

I know some of you here will feel like a ‘stuck record’ – I’ve often mentioned the Spaniard’s abilities at altitude and actually supported him in Cordoba earlier this month when he lost in the semi-finals. Surprise surprise.

But there’s no doubt he’ll enjoy the conditions here, in fact he finished in the last four of this tournament both last year and in 2020.

A look at his career finals confirms my point as well – seven of his 11 appearances came in tournaments played at a considerable level.

Such conditions make ball control key and can confuse some, especially the big hitters, but Ramos-Vinolas is a master at it.

ARV is in the same quarter as top seed Musetti, but the Italian has won just one game in three since arriving in South America and also trails the pair by 2-1 head-to-head.

At 20/1, I can’t help but turn to a proven performer in these conditions, especially as the veteran may not stand too many chances of scooping titles like this – although he’s certainly playing well at the age of 35, for how long it remains at this level remains to be seen.

Let’s support him while we can.

Posted at 1900 GMT on 02/26/23

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