Bye weeks have arrived — here’s how to take advantage
We’re five weeks into the NFL season. Yes, it gets late early out here, especially on fantasy teams. And now the bye weeks are here. I realize this is a concern for many fantasy managers, but I encourage you to turn this idea around. It’s a perfect moment to take stock of where your team stands and a perfect time to capitalize on the Fantasy Season’s current form.
In my book, bye weeks are a fantasy feature, not a bug. Allow me a few minutes to sell you this idea.
Trades are generally more difficult to execute early in the year. Most managers leave draft day satisfied, if not full of confidence. Injuries have not yet occurred. Bad beats haven’t taken root yet. Everyone has a save in mind when they are 0-0.
But now your rankings have some personality and your roster has some sort of identity, good or bad. We’re more than a third of the way into the regular fantasy season. It’s time to identify strengths and weaknesses and work on giving yourself the best chance of getting what you need.
Here are the main topics of the moment:
Step 1: Assess your chances of winning and team situation
Look at the table page and be honest. Maybe you’re kind of 4-1, but you’ve been lucky; or maybe you’re 1-4 with some close, soul-shattering losses. The points scored column reflects your team strength rather than your record. Be fair with your rating.
Now consider the position form of your roster. Where are you strong, where are you weak? where are you hurt From what deep positions could you trade easily? What shallow areas need to be addressed?
Step 2: Take a look at the farewell plan
Bye weeks, as you probably know, don’t have a single size. Sometimes there are two teams, sometimes four and sometimes six. Here’s how they play out for 2022:
Week 6: Lions, Raiders, Titans, Texans
Week 7: Bills, Vikings, Eagles, Aries
Week 8: Chiefs, Chargers (Skinny Bye)
Week 9: Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, 49ers (Heavy Bye)
Week 10: Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Jets
Week 11: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers
Week 12: All play
Week 13: Cardinals, Panthers (Skinny Bye)
Week 14: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, Commanders (heavy bye)
It’s more of a low-level tiebreaker than anything, but I like to put players in with a meager bye, everyone else being equal. My rosters are probably almost 100 percent strengthened during the weeks they’re not playing. Conversely, if you field a lot of heavy bye players, they’ll be more likely to rest while the rest of your roster is a mess of unavailability.
Thin and heavy byes aren’t a reason to make proactive moves, but they’re at least worth considering when planning ahead
Step 3: Find out which potential trading partners suit you
Not all leagues allow trading, and some fantasy managers are nervous about making trades. Paradox of Choice is a real thing. Sometimes it’s emotionally safer to stick with what you have.
But if you’re one of the juggernauts in your league, now is the time to see if you can time the market and get some upgrades from the more desperate managers. And if you’re the type stuck with a losing tally and injuries or bye-byes issues, you might need to consider shaking things up depending on where your team rating landed.
When life is going well, look at the teams at the bottom of the table, paying special attention to the teams in bye-week jams. Maybe there’s a manager with a lousy record that he doesn’t need Amon-Ra St. Brown in this week. This is the perfect moment to start a conversation. Your opponent might be incited to act while you can act from a position of strength.
If you’re against it: you need to narrow your focus, treat almost every week like a playoff game or a DFS contest. Here I could try to liquidate players who are currently injured or have a bye. I need help now and won’t worry about November until much later.
Trading partners don’t just fit through different records; The easiest way for two teams to strike a deal is when they need different positional adjustments. If your reception room is full but your backfield is weak, try to find the team with the opposite problem. Challenging deals (back to back, receiver to receiver) tend to make potential partners nervous. When you both get off an excess, it’s easier on the emotions.
Conclusion: Play the hand that is dealt to you
There’s an old saying on the Tournament Scrabble Circuit: at some point, you’ll stop playing bingos (the 50-point bonus words) and instead try to win the game. Bunting is rarely the +EV move in baseball, but it can be very late in a game when you know the next run will win. Most NFL clubs recognize that fourth and scoring from the 1 is a go-for-it moment, but if it’s late in the fourth period and you win nine points or more with a field goal, kicking may be preferable .
At the draft table, I wanted you to play for the big inning and mostly swing up (with the occasional ground pick thrown in). Now it’s time to maneuver taking into account the specific shape of the game situation.
A team with a track record and enviable depth might be looking to upgrade two or three good players into a superstar. You have that luxury. The teams struggling with losses and injuries may need to consider buying their best player for multiple starters.
Teams with strong records also have the luxury of considering slower-evolving storylines, a player who might not have value now but could get later in the year. You’re likely to lose that luxury if you’re low in the overall standings. Teams with strong records will also start considering the insurance season in the backcourt and line up their good cows with their clear backups, if applicable. This might be less appealing to you if you’re about to enter the Win Weekly mode.
Don’t be afraid of the bye weeks, gamers. They make the game more dynamic and interesting. Players deserve a week off anyway. And for the first time in the fresh fantasy season, your league mates might be eager to trade.
Now is a good time to move.