Predicting The Steelers’ 2023 Cash Spending Based On Latest NFLPA Report

Happy Saturday, the last of the 2022 NFL league year. I hope you’re ready to fret over some numbers this Saturday when the NFLPA releases theirs 2022 cash spending for all 32 NFL teams early today.

First, let’s look at the NFLPA 2022 Cash Spending Report.

As you can see, the Pittsburgh Steelers spent $216,303,541 in cash in 2022, which was $8,103,541 more than the league’s cap of $208,200,000. In short, the Steelers spent 118.5% of the league-wide 2022 cap in cash, and that’s largely because they only spent 77.6% of the 2021 cap of $182,500,000 in cash in 2021 .

Before we continue, let us know that teams are required by the CBA to spend at least 90% of the league’s cap in cash over a three-year period. By the way, the current three-year period is 2021-2023. So, according to the NFLPA spending reports for the last two seasons, the Steelers spent $377,903,541 in cash, which is 96.7% of the combined league-wide caps for 2021 and 2022, which equals $390,700,000. In summary, the Steelers are in a great position to meet the CBA’s 90% cash rule for 2023.

With the 2023 NFL cap now set at $224.8 million, technically the Steelers should only have to spend about $157,236,459 in cash in 2023 to meet the CBA’s 90% cash rule fulfill. Currently, the Steelers’ Rule of 51 cash total is $158,960,536, so obviously there won’t be a problem in meeting the CBA’s 90% cash rule. It’s funny how close these two numbers are, isn’t it?

So does this mean the Steelers won’t hand out more than $158 million in cash in 2023? Absolutely not. In fact, I think there’s a good chance the Steelers will spend nearly 100% of the league’s three-year cap in cash by the end of the 2023 season. To put it simply, the Steelers would have to spend a total of around $217 million in cash in 2023 to reach the 100 percent mark. If that’s the plan, the Steelers will need to shell out another roughly $58 million in cash to move forward.

How are the Steelers going to shell out another $58 million in cash? Well, mostly by signing players who are currently unsigned. Specifically, signing players who need significant sign-up bonuses. Full signing bonus amounts count as full cash amounts in the years shown, although they are accounted for differently in salary cap accounting across multiple years. Of course, all new base salaries for 2023 of the signed players in the respective year also count as cash.

Ok, how can we possibly make some predictions assuming another possible $58 million the Steelers will spend in cash in 2023? Well, for starters, I think there’s a good chance the Steelers will re-sign cornerback Cameron Sutton in the coming days. If that happens, and depending on what his new contract is, it could result in about $13 million to $15 million in cash spent for 2023 if you combine his base salary for the season with the signing bonus he’s been granted.

I also believe the current spending streak over the past two years has been perfect for the Steelers to sign full-back Alex Highsmith for a contract extension later this summer. In that case, the Steelers could shell out about another $15 million to $18 million in extra money on him.

What else can the Steelers spend more money on in 2023? What about the rookie draft class and the undrafted free agent class? By my estimates, that will be roughly $22 million in cash spend when it comes to the draft-class rookie pool and any signing bonuses.

Now, based on all of my expectations for Sutton, Highsmith, and the entire rookie class, I project the team will hand out roughly another $50 million in cash this offseason. Assuming the Steelers are going to spend about another $58 million in cash this offseason, that leaves Sutton, Highsmith and all the rookies with about an additional $8 million in cash they’re likely to spend on free agents this offseason . Either own or external. For margin of error, I suppose that number could be as high as $15 million, beyond new contracts for Sutton, Highsmith and the entire rookie class of 2023.

In closing, this is the first time I’ve really focused on predicting total spending for the Steelers in a year, and that’s largely because they’re now entering their third year in the CBA’s three-year span. My final cash spending forecast for the Steelers in 2023 is $218 million. So when the NFLPA releases final league-wide cash spend for all 32 teams a year from now, I’ll be excited to see how close my final prediction was.

Let me reiterate that this is purely a forecast and prediction on my part and is based on the Steelers spending roughly 100% of the league’s total cash cap from 2021-2023. The estimated amounts used in this post are only estimates so please forgive me if I’m not getting very close to my final prediction as this is my first time attempting this process.