Timeform expert Dan Barber on the big questions

For or against Facile Vega?

A tough nut. I would have preferred to have faced him when he was very close before his Dublin Racing Festival disaster.

I now find him a very difficult horse to raise the price. At first I would have tried to find something against him in every way. I’m really warming to another Mullins horse at Diverge which is a possible piece. There’s still that blow-out potential with Facile Vega.

El Fabiolo or Jonbon in Sporting Life Arkle?

It’s a bit like having to choose between your children! Jonbon seems the more natural two mile player to me, I think El Fabiolo is a very strong stayer on the journey as he showed at Arkle, Ireland.

I’m still not sure what to think of Jonbon’s Warwick performance, looking somewhere in the middle probably makes sense. Many were keen to say “look at him, he’s gone!”, others said it was nothing to worry about.

I think El Fabiolo has achieved more but I just feel like Jonbon is a little bit more “here and now” and can beat him again like he did at Aintree.

Is it about how far Constitution Hill is?

Yes. The one day I’m not down for racing television or other work at Cheltenham is Tuesday and this is the one race I’ve been dying to watch all week.

I honestly think he’s the best hurdler I’ve ever seen – be it at two miles, three miles, whatever. He has a rival in State Man who would be a very close favorite for a champion hurdle in a normal year – he’s just about the level of timeform scores you need to win the race.

But it’s about degrees and I think Constitution Hill is one in a million horses while State Man is one in 5,000.

Honeysuckle – yes or no?

Another difficult question, but I think no.

This has to be one of the strongest innovations to the mare corral we’ve seen. It’s just down to that, the level of competition and the belief that there’s evidence they’ve deteriorated a little more than Epatante.

If you gave me a match bet at this point I would probably play 8/11 Epatante vs Evens Honeysuckle.

Will both Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter win?

I think there’s a very good chance they will. At our Timeform ratings meeting this week, it quickly became apparent, particularly in the Brown Advisory, that there wasn’t much depth in it.

What else could Mighty Potter have done in his division to establish himself as the clear choice? Some argue that Cheltenham wouldn’t suit him after last season’s Supreme, but by Gordon’s standards it’s been a pretty pathetic week – he won a cross-country and a crazy handicap on terrible ground with Commander Of Fleet after he and Ashdale Bob had parted ways with him.

Last year it was just a below average week for the stable and I think that was more evident in Mighty Potter’s defeat than any problem he had with the track.

Delta Work To Get Back Into The Cross-Country Chase?

I think he does and without making the National at any great depth I think there is a real Tiger Roll opportunity for a horse to win this and rise to Aintree glory.

He tried to do the double last year and the fences at Liverpool seemed to take a bit of getting used to for him, he needed a bit of time to warm up but was spot on in the penultimate. I don’t think a lack of stamina was enough for him, just the effort to get into the race took its toll.

I prefer him to Galvin at Cheltenham who I think looks a little lifeless these days and Delta Work could well follow suit at Aintree.

And dangers for Shishkin?

Not when he’s racing, and I suppose that’s the question. Just as many people were willing to take a run or two with Shishkin to conclude that this was the end of him, now after a very positive run we can say he’s definitely turned the corner.

That’s my only issue – I said on the Betfair podcast that the way you play Ryanair Chase might be to support Shishkin as a no runner/no bet before Ascot like if he was bombed out he would probably not running, if someone did they probably would not be in a bad position.

I haven’t, and now it comes down to what price do you think he needs to show his true form? If he shows it, he’s better than them.

Where do you stand with the Stayers’ Hurdle?

Like most people, completely in the dark. I just think the two younger Irish horses who are improving, three if you count Home By The Lee, are attracting a lot of attention.

But looking at its shape, I’m not sure if it will hold up. Blazing Khal hasn’t hit a really good one yet, I have a lot of respect for the stable, but it took him five tries to win his bumper and beat Gelino Bello in a Grade Two at Cheltenham last December.

Then he won a race to which he was fully entitled, for the first time again against inferior horses. Flooring Porter was under a cloud and can he continue racing at Cheltenham like he did? Surely in a year something will try to bring him down tactically.

I still hope Paisley Park can run well at a high price as I’m not sure Teahupoo’s form is of a high enough level to make him the market leader. It’s a very open race but I think the race will suit Paisley Park better than last season and he showed he’s as good as ever when he beat Champ at Ascot.

Selection of the Mullins trio in triumph?

Lossiemouth still, but the market action for Blood Destiny over the past few days or so is pretty compelling.

But I think the mare will be a tough nut to crack. She gets the weight and for me I was unlucky to be beaten by Gala Marceau at the Dublin Racing Festival. Not only was she severely handicapped, she had to move around off the field and as she neared the last one it looked like she could carry herself to the front.

Fair play, the winner found plenty but the more accurate guide to these two might be the first meeting when Lossiemouth won by seven lengths and something. She’s done enough – with permission – to make her my pick of the Mullins trio.

Gold Cup – Can Galopin des Champs stay?

Not strong enough. Either he’ll make it through the race like the best horse or A Plus Tard will, but there’s finally some hint in the strange weather forecast that we could be getting a rainy race week.

That could have a big impact on the Gold Cup, I think that’s the race that’s more radically changed over the course of the week than any other. That means the three-mile riders who get away with it on good ground, like One Man, Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux from the past, end up flapping late because they don’t have the extra stamina.

I’ll stay with Stattler, every rain is good for him. I think Galopin Des Champs is the best three mile runner in the race, but is he the best over three and a half?

Is he actually the best three-mile runner? If you think about it, A Plus Tard’s performance in last year’s Gold Cup is probably the best form here.

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