What latest Oklahoma, Texas conference realignment news means to FSU, USF

Thursday night’s news that Oklahoma and Texas will leave the Big 12 for the SEC in time for the 2024 season has obvious implications for college football in Florida. The Gators are less than 17 months away from playing in the same league as two other marquee brands. UCF, meanwhile, won’t get a visit from the Sooners or Longhorns as their Big 12 counterparts.

But the ripple effects of this update (and other rumors about the conference realignment) are much more interesting and important. Here are three thoughts on the latest realignment news:

Of the 14 teams to have won a national title since 1992, 11 are current/prospective members of the SEC or the Big Ten. The three exceptions: Florida State, Miami, and Clemson.

As the top of the Power Five consolidates into the Power Two, the Seminoles and Hurricanes look in from the outside. ACC schools are linked by a grant of rights. Legally, this means schools award the TV rights to their home games to the conference, which then redistributes the TV revenue back to the teams. In practical terms, this means that schools would lose so much money by leaving that they would be stuck. For FSU and Miami, that means staying in the ACC (with its weak TV payouts) until the deal expires in 2036 — which is forever in this landscape.

But Texas and Oklahoma negotiated out of the Big 12 deal just a year early. The cost totals $100 million “in lost distributable earnings that OU and UT can partially offset with future earnings.”

That sounds like a lot. But forgoing a (partially offset) $50 million in future earnings is better than the $90 million they could have been on the hook for, according to The Athletic.

Although the granting of rights by the ACC is not public, it is reasonable to assume that breaking those rights would cost significantly more. But Texas and Oklahoma are showing that finding and paying for an escape is possible. And finally, the expense for FSU and Miami to pursue their own exit strategy will be a better financial decision than staying outside of the Power Two.

Sports Illustrated covered the Big 12 expected to “aggressively pursue” Expansion now that Texas and Oklahoma exits are complete. So who?

USF was discussed as an option in the last wave but missed the cut. Instead, UCF, Houston, BYU and Cincinnati will be promoted this summer. Since that decision was made, the Bulls have opened their long-awaited indoor practice facility and made significant progress toward building an on-campus stadium.

But don’t get your hopes up just yet, USF fans. The struggles of the Bulls in football (and, to a lesser extent, men’s basketball) are still a problem that will be difficult, if not impossible, for a major conference to overcome. USF also would not add a new time zone for the Big 12, which is a goal of its commissioner.

Instead, the much more likely scenario is that the Big 12 are attempting to poach the Pac-12 – likely the so-called Four Corners schools of Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado.

Pac-12 officer George Kliavkoff paid a supposedly secret visit to SMU on Wednesday, which was in fact no secret. That’s a sign that the Mustangs have joined San Diego State as a viable expansion candidate for the Pac-12.

SMU has gone 32-16 over the past four football seasons, and its last two head coaches have improved in power-five jobs (Chad Morris to Arkansas, Sonny Dykes to TCU). Academically, it is ranked 72nd by US News & World Report and is seeking to become a Tier 1 research university. The Mustangs opened their new on-campus football stadium in 2000, renovated their basketball arena a decade ago, and broke ground on a $100 million end zone complex in December.

If the Mustangs go, far from certain, the American Athletic Conference would be without four of the top five teams in last year’s standings. USF would lose one of the leading remaining brands in its conference, but would also have an easier route to a conference title. Last but not least, it’s worth keeping an eye on SMU’s future as USF aspires to make its own leap into a bigger league.

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