xG Champions League Review: Round of 16 scorelines according to expected goals

• We attempt to rank each game outcome by comparing the actual outcome to the range of possible outcomes that could occur given the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, with 100 representing the occasions where the process comes closest to the actual outcome, and lower scores indicate a game where the outcome is not fully reflected in the balance of opportunities created.

Manchester City found themselves in Germany after a much-improved second-half performance from the hosts who deserved a draw.

Leipzig were comfortably second best in the first 45 with just one shot and 0.06 xG, but despite their ball and territory dominance, City didn’t do enough to finish the game, amassing an xG total of just 0.40 themselves.

Riyad Mahrez did score the opening goal in the first half, but his goal was the visitors’ best chance of the night (0.23 x G) and the hosts turned things around in the second half.

Leipzig created the two best chances of the game through Andre Silva (0.49xG) and goalscorer Josko Gvardiol (0.47xG), while limiting their visitors to only low-probability attempts, which will be seen as a positive headline into the second leg must.

For City, this is the fourth time in five away games in Premier League and UCL competition that they have not won, beating only Arsenal in that span.

Inter Milan will take the lead in the return leg to Portugal thanks to Romelu Lukaku’s late winner in Italy.

A home win was a fair result as, according to xG, Inter overtook their visitors and extended their run to nine straight home games in Serie A and UCL matches in which they beat the xG fight.

Porto created some good chances that night, with Mehdi Teremi failing to convert the best chance of the game (0.61 xG), but the tie remains very even when the pair head to the Dragão in three weeks’ time.

• Infogol xG: 2.19 – 1.57
• Fairness Rating: 52.35
• Scorers: Nunez 4′, Salah 14′ | Vinicius Junior 21′, 36′, Militao 47′, Benzema 55′, 67′

Real Madrid fought back from an early 2-0 deficit to defeat Liverpool 5-2 in a Champions League thriller at Anfield.

While the defending champions were no doubt impressive as they roared back to victory, the five goals came from chances equal to just 1.57 expected goals (xG). Both teams had just nine shots in total, with Liverpool scoring five and Madrid scoring six.

It reflects both an air of luck for the visitors and Real’s reputation for sheer recklessness at key moments.

That means the tie is pretty much over now, but it could have been so different for Liverpool. Darwin Nunez’s wonderful goal gave the Reds the lead just minutes later, Thibaut Courtois’ error being exploited 10 minutes later by Mohamed Salah to convert the opportunity that presented itself.

Remarkably, Real’s two goals followed a similar pattern. Vinicius Junior’s powerful shot found the bottom corner for an eye-catching goal before charging Alisson’s defense when the ball came home to level.

Two well-crafted gates; two horrendous goalkeeper mistakes.

Éder Militão headed in from a corner early in the second half before the prolific Karim Benzema came into play.

The first had a touch of luck, the second delivered the expected class. A deflected shot put the Liverpool goalkeeper on the wrong foot for a fourth time and the striker made the Reds’ defense look lost as he converted the fifth.

It was a great night for Real Madrid – who almost reached the quarter-finals – and the readers of Sporting Life with ours Preview delivers winners on May 6th, February 7th and 16.1.

• Infogol xG: 0.33 – 2.63
• Fairness Rating: 99.77
• Scorers: Osimhen 40′, Di Lorenzo 65′

Napoli’s glorious season continued as a 2-0 away win at Eintracht Frankfurt put them in a commanding position to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League.

Series AThe runaway leaders had little trouble en route to victory – ten shots on target met one of the hosts with a significant gap in attacking quality.

Part of Napoli’s total xG was a penalty, although Khvicha Kvaratskhelia failed to convert his penalty in the first half.

It cost them nothing, however, as the in-form Victor Osimhen scored before the break to put them ahead.

Even though it was a goal deficit, it already looked like a mountain to them Bundesliga club and things got worse when star striker Randal Kolo Muani showed a straight red card just before the hour mark.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo made it to second shortly after and the Italian team looks set to take their place in the last eight.

A low-scoring game was expected, with Sporting Life tipster Liam Kelly picking under 2.5 goals on 11/10 and both teams picking no on 13/10 Game preview.